Structured Decision Making for Lake Erie Cisco: Operationalizing the Coregonine Restoration Framework

Marjorie Liberati (MSU, livera22@msu.edu) & Bo Bunnell (USGS, dbunnell@usgs.gov), Jason Robinson (NYSDEC), David Nihart (PFBC), Mark Haffley (PFBC), Cory Brant (USGS), Josh Egan (GLFC), Andrew Honsey (USGS), Katelyn King (MIDNR), Laura Lee (USFWS), Andrew Muis (GLFC), John Sweka (USFWS)

This project proposes to undertake a Structured Decision Making (SDM) process to support Cisco restoration in the New York and Pennsylvania waters of Lake Erie, directly operationalizing the “Restore” phase of the Coregonine Restoration Framework (CRF; Figure 2 of Bunnell et al., 2023). The overarching goal is to work collaboratively with Lake Erie fisheries managers to identify and evaluate experimental Cisco stocking strategies and complementary restoration actions (e.g., spawning habitat construction or restoration) that align with agency objectives, account for uncertainty, and support long-term recovery of the Cisco in Lake Erie. This project responds to a critical implementation need within the CRF. Considerable progress has been made during the “Planning” phase: spatial unit delineation, threat assessments, reproductive habitat suitability models, and population viability models. However, no methods have been developed to aggregate and integrate information from the planning phase to inform actionable decisions by fishery managers. The proposed SDM process fills this gap, linking planning outputs to restoration alternatives through a transparent, value-driven, and implementation-focused decision process. Although the geographic focus of this project would be New York and Pennsylvania waters of Lake Erie, the process is designed to be transferable to other Great Lakes jurisdictions. As such, the project will serve as a model for how lake-specific efforts connect and inform a basin-wide restoration strategy, consistent with the CRF. The final outcomes of this project will include a set of recommended restoration actions for the jurisdictions involved in active Cisco reintroduction in Lake Erie, identification of key socioecological uncertainties that could be addressed through adaptive management, documentation of the decision process, and guidance to support replication in other regions.